Tue, July 02, 2024 at 10:24

• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Hello, Annie.

  • Today, I have some interesting news about the recent U.S. presidential candidates' TV debate that took place on December 27th.

  • According to a poll conducted immediately after the debate, former President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden by 6 percentage points.

  • 
• Annie

  • Oh, really?

  • That's quite a gap!😮 What were the exact numbers?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Yes, indeed.

  • The poll, conducted by Harvard University's Center for American Politics and Harris Poll, showed that 47% of respondents would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 41% would vote for Biden.

• Annie

  • Interesting.

  • How did the support break down among different groups?

  
• ADward

  • Hold on! Behold, an advertisement awaits. Legend has it that clicking on this ad will make the AI server even smarter... 😅

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Trump has strong support from Republicans, with 92% backing him.

  • He also has the support of 8% of Democrats and 42% of unaffiliated respondents.

  • On the other hand, Biden is supported by 82% of Democrats, 5% of Republicans, and 32% of independents.

• Annie

  • Wow, that's a big difference in party support.

  • What about the overall voter confidence?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • After the debate, 72% of respondents said they had already chosen a candidate for whom they would vote, which is up 3 percentage points from 69% in May.

  • Among Trump supporters, 76% are confident they will vote for him, whereas only 68% of Biden supporters feel the same.

• Annie

  • So, more Trump supporters are certain about their choice compared to Biden's.

  • What about the undecided voters?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Yes, that's correct.

  • Interestingly, 32% of Biden supporters are still undecided on who they will vote for, which is a significant portion.

  • Harris Poll noted that more Biden support is seen among voters who are still weighing their options.

• Annie

  • That's quite telling.

  • How many people had access to the debates?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • According to the poll, 87% of respondents had access to the debates, either by watching it on TV or through online clips.

  • Of those, 40% said they were more likely to vote for Trump after watching the debate, compared to 23% for Biden.

• Annie

  • It seems like Trump had a better impact from the debate.

  • How did people perceive their performances?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Indeed, 52% of respondents thought Trump did better in the debate, while only 22% thought Biden performed better.

  • The remaining 26% were unsure.

• Annie

  • Given these numbers, do you think this news is good or bad for the market?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • I would say this news is a negative indicator for the market.

  • The uncertainty surrounding Biden's support and the significant portion of undecided voters could lead to market volatility.

  • 

  • Investors generally prefer stability, and this poll suggests potential instability in the political landscape.

  • Upon comprehensive consideration, this news is perceived as a 😱Bearish.