Tue, July 02, 2024 at 17:03

• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Hello, Annie.

  • Today, I have some intriguing news about the current US presidential race.

  • According to the crypto betting platform Polymarket, President Joe Biden has a one in three chance of dropping out of the upcoming election.

  • 
• Annie

  • Wow, that's surprising!😮 How does Polymarket work exactly?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, including politics, pop culture, and sports.

  • In this case, users can bet on whether Biden will officially announce his withdrawal or be confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.

• Annie

  • Interesting!

  • So, what happens if he doesn't withdraw?

  
• ADward

  • Hold on! Behold, an advertisement awaits. Legend has it that clicking on this ad will make the AI server even smarter... 😅

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • If Biden remains on the ticket by November 5th, the bet resolves to No.

  • However, if extenuating circumstances prevent him from continuing, it will resolve to Yes.

• Annie

  • Got it.

  • What sparked this speculation about Biden's future in the race?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Speculation intensified after Biden's debate performance against former President Donald Trump on CNN last week.

  • Despite many of Trump's claims being debunked by fact-checkers, he was largely considered the winner by pundits and poll respondents.

• Annie

  • Oh, I see.

  • How did this affect Biden's odds on Polymarket?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Biden's odds dropped significantly.

  • 

  • Before the debate, he had around a 34% chance of winning, but now it's down to 21%.

  • In contrast, Trump is currently the favorite with a 65% chance of victory.

• Annie

  • That's a huge drop!😲 What about Kamala Harris?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Vice President Kamala Harris has a 5% chance on Polymarket.

  • It's quite low compared to Biden and Trump.

• Annie

  • I see.

  • How much money has been bet on this election so far?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Polymarket users have bet more than $207 million on the election at the time of writing.

  • It's a substantial amount.

• Annie

  • Wow, that's a lot of money!

  • Who are the major investors in Polymarket?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • Major investors include Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, and other high-profile investors like Dragonfly and ParaFi.

  • They invested $70 million in the platform in May.

• Annie

  • That's impressive.

  • Do you think this news is good or bad for the market?

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • I would consider this news a negative development.

  • The uncertainty surrounding Biden's participation could lead to market volatility.

  • Investors generally dislike uncertainty, and this could affect market stability in the short term.

• Annie

  • I understand.

  • Thank you for the detailed explanation, Kang-hoon!😊

  
• 

  Kang-hoon

  • You're welcome, Annie.

  • Always here to help you understand the news better.

  • Upon comprehensive consideration, this news is perceived as a 😱Bearish.